Those of you that have followed me over the years are very much aware of my reluctance to lay this big of a number. Nevertheless, this is an exception to that practice. Clemson has felt disrespected since the 2019 college football playoff rankings began. You can look for the Tigers to come out with a strong effort on Saturday night against a Virginia team playing in its first ever ACC Championship Game. Furthermore, Virginia is coming off last week’s emotional 39-30 win over Virginia Tech. That victory snapped a 14-game losing streak to their bitter in state rival. Earning a spot in the conference championship game seemed to be an afterthought after getting the proverbial monkey off their back.
Clemson is a perfect 12-0 thus far, and that includes going an extremely profitable 9-3 ATS. As a matter of fact, the Tigers are 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 28.0 to 42.0-points and they won by a massive average of 45.2 points per contest. They’ve also outscored their 8 ACC opponents by 35.7 points per game. This will be Clemson’s 5th trip the ACC Championship Game in as many years. Clemson has scored 38 points or more in each of their previous 8 games.
Any college football favorite of 23.5 to 31.0 that coming off 5 consecutive game in which they scored 37 points or more, resulted in those sizable favorites going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) since 1995. Bet on Clemson minus the points for a 5* wager.
RESULTS: WIN 100.0
NCAAF Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State
UL-Lafayette @ Appalachian State 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Appalachian State -6.0 (5*)
UL-Lafayette enters this conference title game on a 6-game win streak and all those victories came over Sun Belt opponents. This current hot streak enabled them to finish their regular season slate with an impressive 10-2 (.833). As a matter of fact, their last loss occurred on 10/9 at home when they fell 17-7 to Appalachian State.
Appalachian State closed out their regular season with last Saturday’s 48-13 blowout win at Troy. That triumph improved their season record to an outstanding 11-1 (.917) and kept them alive to be the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
Any conference home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 (Appalachian State) that’s coming off a conference win by 6 points or more, and they own a win percentage of .750 or better, Versus an opponents that’s coming off conference win in each of their previous 3 games played, and they (UL-Lafayette) possess a win percentage of .700 to .909, resulted in those home favorites going 34-3 ATS (91.9%) since 1996. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points for a 5* wager.
RESULTS: WIN 100.0
NCAAF Georgia at LSU
Georgia vs. LSU 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 55.5 (10*)
Georgia’s defense is elite as evidenced by the giving up just 10.4 points and 257.1 yards per game this season. However, they will be facing the best offense in the country on Saturday with all things being considered. LSU has scored 42 points or more in 10 of 12 games this season on their way to an unblemished 12-0 record and #1 ranking. The Tigers are averaging a robust 48.7 points and 560.4 yards per game. Conversely, the LSU defense has been vulnerable at time. The Tigers stop unit has allowed 37 points or more 4 times and permitted its opponents to amass 530 yards or more of total offense on 3 separate occasions. I like the combined score to reach 60 points or greater in this SEC Championship Game. Bet on this contest to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
RESULTS: LOSS -165.0
NCAAF Wisconsin at Ohio State
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Wisconsin +16.5 (5*)
It’s highly probable, if 12-0 Ohio State were to get upset by 10-2 Wisconsin, they would still be part of the college football playoffs. My point being is the level of urgency for a decisive margin of victory so to impress the playoff committee isn’t the same as it were be for #5 Utah or #6 Oklahoma.
Wisconsin will be out to revenge a 38-7 loss at Ohio State earlier this season. Their vaunted rushing attack was held to 84 yards on that day which is substantially below its season average. As a matter of fact, since that loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin has won 4 straight and their offense averaged 36.0 points scored and 503.5 yards of total offense per contest which includes 299.0 yards on the ground. The Badgers have outrushed their opponents by a sizeable 147 yards per game this season.
Any college football neutral field underdog (Wisconsin) that’s outrushing its opponents by 100 or more yards per game, resulted in those underdogs going 36-11 ATS (76.6%) since 2015. Those 47 underdogs also won 27 of those contests straight up. Bet on Wisconsin plus the points for a 5* wager.