San Francisco is coming off a deflating 13-3 home loss to division rival Seattle in their regular season rival. If the 49ers had won, they would've finished first in the NFC West and also the NFC #1 seed. Instead, they finished second in the division standings and dropped all the way to a #6 seed. Now, they must travel over 3 time zones for an extremely difficult Wild Card Round road matchup against the defending world champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home playoff games and they outscored those opponents by an average of 21.0 points per contest while doing so. After coming under heavy criticism during the first half of the season, the Philadelphia defense has been dominant over their last 5 regular season games. During that stretch, the Eagles allowed just 15.2 points and 235.0 yards per game. Compare that to San Francisco allowing 26.0 points and 371.0 yards per contest over their final 3 regular season games. If you subscribe to the theory that defense wins championships, then Philadelphia has much more momentum than San Francisco heading into the playoffs.

Lastly, the Eagles are coming off a 24-17 loss to Washington in their final regular season game. It must be noted that many of the Eagles frontline players didn't play in that contest to assure they would be healthy heading into the playoffs. Nevertheless, Philadelphia has gone 10-1-1 ATS since the start of the 2022-2023 season as a home favorite of -6.0 or lower after allowing 24 points or fewer in their previous game.

Bet the Philadelphia Eagles as a point-spread favorite of -6.0 or lower.

So, let's assess this current point-spread that shows Buffalo as a short favorite in a majority of sportsbooks. We have a Jacksonville team (13-4) that's 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. Additionally, the Jaguars are 7-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Seattle who's the NFC #1 seed. yet, they find themselves as an underdog versus a Bills (12-5) team that's flawed on both sides of the ball and a #6 seed in the AFC. This is a think like an oddsmaker special if there ever was one. Here's the caveat, Jacksonville has played in just 2 playoff games since 2019. Trevor Lawrence was their starting quarterback in both those contests and both games occurred in 2023. Lawrence threw an alarmingly high 5 interceptions during those 2-career postseason starts.

Conversely, the Bills have made the playoffs in each of the last 7 years and have reached 2 AFC Championship games. They went 7-5 during that time. As a matter of fact, 7-1 since the 2020 postseason versus all teams not named Kansas City. The Bills star quarterback Josh Allen has proven to be an extremely impressive postseason performer. Allen has made 13 career postseason starts while amassing 3727 total yards with his arm and legs in addition to accounting for 32 touchdowns. It also must be noted; Josh Allen was intercepted only 4 times in those 13-career postseason starts. I love the postseason experience edge that Buffalo has over Jacksonville it what's deemed to be an even matchup by the oddsmakers.

Bet the Buffalo Bills as point-spread favorite or underdog of 2.5 or lower