Navy is 9-2 and ranked #22 in the country. Their only defeats came at the hands of #9 Notre Dame (10-2) and #23 North Texas (11-2). The Midshipmen have a special dual threat senior quarterback in Blake Horvath who has accounted for 2430 yards of total and offense and 23 touchdowns this season. Considering he missed 2 games due to injury those numbers are even more impressive. He has the ability to be a huge difference maker in this huge rivalry game. Navy is coming off back-to- back upset wins over South Florida (9-3) and at Memphis (8-4) in their previous contest.
Army is coming off a 27-24 upset win at UTSA as a +7.5-point underdog their last time out which improved their season record 6-5 and made them bowl eligible. They won 3 of their last 4 contests and all 4 of those games were decided by 3 points or fewer. Their lone loss in that sequence came as a home double-digit favorite against Tulsa (4-8). The Cadets also lost their home opener to Tarleton State who plays at the FCS level.
I get the fact that anything can happen in rivalry games. However, Navy is the more talented and better team in this matchup.
All college football favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 like Navy who are coming off an away underdog upset win by 6 points or more, versus an opponent that's also coming off an away underdog SU win, resulted in those favorites going 17-2 ATS (89.5%) since the start of the 1985 season. Furthermore, if those underdogs like Army in this exact situation saw their previous upset win come by 7 points or fewer, then the favorites improved to 11-0 SU&ATS since 1985 and won by an average of 19.1 points per contest.
Bet the Navy Midshipmen as a point-spread favorite of -7.0 or lower.
|