| Analysis:
The Lions are coming off a home 31-24 upset loss to division rival Green Bay in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. Detroit has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 at home following a loss and whenever their point-spread was 0.0 or a favorite, and they were facing an opponent like Dallas (6-5-1/.545) that has a win percentage of .363 or better. The Lions average point-spread in those 7 contests was -3.7 and they outscored their opponents by a decisive average margin of 17.3 points per game.
Dallas has gone an abysmal 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 games as an away underdog of between +3.0 to +7.5 and they were outscored by an average of 14.9 points per contest. Dallas enters this game on a 3-game win streak, but they've still only gone 15-16-1 in their last 32 games.
All NFL home favorites of between -2.5 to -12.0 after Game 8 that are coming off a division home favorite SU loss, and they possess a win percentage of between .510 to .600, versus an opponent like Dallas which has won 18 or fewer of their last 32 games played and they have a current win percentage of .200 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1990 season.
Bet the Detroit Lions as a point-spread home favorite of -4.0 or lower.
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